The National Association of Realtors® recently published an article voicing concern over the rising foreclosure rate in many areas, urging consumers “to make sure they understand the risks and rewards of all types of mortgages before they make a decision on a loan”.

One of the really interesting tidbits in the article was the idea that problematic loans are made in certain areas.

Foreclosures are not only a disaster for families but also for communities. Problematic loans are often made in concentrated areas, and high foreclosure rates of single-family homes can seriously threaten a neighborhood’s stability and a community’s well being.

The reason I found this of interest is that I had previously noticed in working with some buyers in neighborhood in Sacramento County that there was a high concentration of short sales all within the same neighborhood. This stood out even more because even the buyers I was working with were being forced to move because the home they were renting was in foreclosure, and they lived in the very same neighborhood.

What NAR’s article fails to address, however, is why this should be the case. What are we dealing with here that it should be limited to a given subdivision? Is it just agreessive lending practice, or outright loan fraud? I know at least in the case of the landlord of the buyer I was working with, the loan in foreclosure was not one that was made when the subdivision was first created, but much later on. Are we dealing with unscrupulous “area specialists” here, and if so, NAR’s remedy for the problem (consult a Realtor®), is rather like consulting the fox to solve the problem of maimed chickens. Or is it simply the case that a subdivision that experiences lots of sales and rapid price appreciation during a buyer’s market tends to attract more speculative buyers by appearing to be a “hot” area.

I’m also very curious as to whether my readers have encountered anything similar in El Dorado or Amador County. I wouldn’t be surprised if you could uncover something like this in Serrano in El Dorado Hills, for example, but I haven’t proven that, it’s just a hunch at this point. (Fortunately, since I’m not Alan Greenspan, my hunches probably won’t sway the market one way or another, folks).

November 2006 was a slow month in Pioneer residentilal sales considering the market of a year ago.  Sales were down substantially, with only three units selling in November as compared to nine in November of 2006.

To be sure, nine units is statistically compelling, and three units is downright unrepresentative, but let’s plow ahead boldly anyway and see what we can make of things.

The average home that sold in Pioneer this November was considerably smaller and more inexpensive than last year’s average. The average sale price was down 30.5%, from $342,333 to $238,000, which looks like some kind of catastophy until you realize that this year’s average home was also 37% smaller at 1060 square feet than last year’s 1615 square feet.  As a result, the sold price per square foot ratio actually rose during this peirod, from $215 per square foot to $237 per square foot.

Here are a few nice Amador County Wildlife photos for you to enjoy.

“See the deer.  Does the deer have a little doe?”

“Yeah, two bucks.”

I have the best job in the world, I really do.

It gives me great pleasure to announce that the California Department of Real Estate has recognized us as Elite Properties.

Now let me be clear, for Department of Real Estate, that just means that the DRE acknowledges our “Doing Business As” name.

Of course, those of you who know how I upgraded my act with the hiring of Bridget — and those who clicked on the Elite link above to Dictionary.com — know that the word also means this:

e·lite /ɪˈlit, eɪˈlit/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[i-leet, ey-leet] –noun
1. (often used with a plural verb) the choice or best of anything considered collectively, as a group or class of persons.

2. (used with a plural verb) persons of the highest class: Only the elite were there.

And those of you who not only click on links but are great proofreaders will note that the Department of Real Estate has yet to enjoy the fun that I enjoyed on my Wonderful Amador County Adventure. As you can see from that link, I knew even as I first entered Amador County that I was on route 49. So we need to bring the DRE up to speed on this issue, which we’ll do shortly. (If we really want to get on their good side, we’ll take them to the indigenous diner, Marlene and Glen’s). The DRE has poor Bridget eking out a living on the hitherto unexplored “Route 40″, as we can see below:

It looks like congratulations are in order to Bridget on what’s shaping up to be Elite Properties’ 2007 “New Years’ Baby” escrow, her listing at 9431 Wheeler Loop in Plymouth.

Three years after my hungry first year in this business, I still get all excited whenever there’s talk of an escrow. I love escrows, especially the closed ones that we do. I just want to be there for all the little escrows of the world, and give them all a great big hug from Papa Johnnie.

C’mere, you!

This just proves that so far our Amador County Elite Properties office is winning the John Lockwood Associates coveted “Office of the Year” award, for the year about to start.

Those slackers over in the Sacramento Office had better straighten up and fly right, or they’re going to find myself out of a job.

[Editor's note:  This was written before the Sacramento Office had any slackers besides the author.]

We sent out the checks to the Amador and El Dorado County Food Banks today. We want to thank everyone who contributed to the Blogathon’s success, and give a special thank you to Judy Onorato at Financial Title
for making our blogathon a success.

No electrons were harmed in the typing of this blogathon.

A few minutes after crossing over the Amador County line on my great adventure of the same name, I spotted civilization in the form of an intersection, where the Native Amadorians had established a settlement of sorts.

Following the tradition of my New England Ancestors, I decided to land here and name this settlement “Plymouth”.

(Actually by way of full disclosure, that’s a bit misleading. I did have New England Ancestors, but they weren’t Englishmen landing at Plymouth in search of religious freedom. They were Frenchmen travelling south from Canada in search of economic freedom in the form of textile factories).

Now back to our adventure.

It turned out the Amadorians were a friendly and welcoming race, engaged primarily in the export of wine and the basic Cafe service industries. An advanced people, they erected signs for the benefit of their visitors.

These signs described exotic places like Villa Toscano, Kelson Creek, Renwood, Karmere, and the Plymouth House Inn. (I was somewhat chagrined to discover later that many of these exotic places had already been visited by web site developers). Zinfandels, I discovered, were quite popular.

From this parking lot I established a sort of photographic beach head, and determined to chronical a great deal about the local commerce.

The Sierra Trading Post was across the street.

It had what appearted to be an ATM, but I did not explore further.

I did go in to visit Marlene and Glen’s, an indigenous diner. The gentleman there was extremely pleasant, so I told him I would tell people to go there and order food and beverages.

You should go there. It was very pleasant. The coffee was good.

They have record albums on many of the walls, including the rest rooms. This was a custom so strange I knew I would not be believed if I did not return with a photo.

By the way, this is part 3 or thereabouts of the Photos of John’s Great Amador County adventure.

This is part two of my photos from John’s Great Amador County Adventure. You’ll recall that last time I’d only made it as far as Poor Red’s in El Dorado, and you were left hanging on the edges of your seats: will he make it in the fog?

Yeah, sure, it’s not that hard, you just go down route 49.

What with your modern so-called Honda automobiles, the journey is trivial.

The numbers for residential sales in Pollock Pines from November, 2005 to November, 2006 are a kind of mixed jumble that makes them difficult to characterize.

On the one hand, sales are up 50%, from twelve units sold last November to eighteen sold this November.  So looking just at November, that’s great news.  Of course, if you take the year as a whole (December to November for 2005 versus 2006), a different picture emerges, with 261 units sold in 2005 versus 156 in 2006, a forty per cent drop.  Perhaps it’s safe to say just what we noticed recently in our other writings, that buyers, lured both by bargains offered with prices falling and the recent drops in interest rates, have been coming out in droves these last couple of months.

This year’s median sale price was up 15.6% in Pollock Pines, from $360,617 last November to $416,737 this November.  Also, the average sale price was up 11.6%, from $355,792 last November to $397,217 this November.   Don’t get too excited yet, however — it turns out that a little more money bought a lot more house, with the average size of sold units growning a big 45.7%, from 1355 square feet last November to 1974 square feet this November.

As a result, when we look at average square footage, we no longer find appreciation.  Instead, we find a significant drop — of 23.4%, from November to November.

It’s hard to find much to fault with Pollock Pines’ November performance overall, however.  Given the good divisor of eighteen units sold, inventory is a modest 6.6 months.  I’m sure sellers are hoping that December and January will bring them more of the same, but we’ll have to wait and see on that one.

Well, what sort of tourist would I be if I didn’t take pictures?

(The kind who blogged video? Hey, be gentle with me, I live in El Dorado County. What do you think this is, “Silicone Valley”? Yes, people around here really do call it “Silicone Valley” half the time. I think they’re confusing it with Hollywood, but that’s a whole different post).

So anyway, during yesterday’s big Amador County Adventure, naturally I took some pictures, as proof that I’m not some guy just hanging around my comfortable den in Cameron Park, but nay, indeed, really did make it as far as the Mel’s in Jackson.

Here’s proof that at one point I was preparing to leave the safe known known (thanks, Donald Rumsfeld) of El Dorado County, in the form of my not-too-fuzzy picture of Poor Red’s:

For those of you who don’t think “Poor Red’s” is a local landmark, I once had a “floor call” from my web site in which I was asked how far a given house was to Poor Red’s. As it turns out, Poor Red’s is pretty close to where my daughter goes to High School, but it’s even closer to the turn off from Pleasant Valley Road onto route 49, which is El Dorado County’s preferred method for getting out to Amador if that’s the kind of big adventure you’re having.

So Many El Dorados, So Little Time

Poor Red’s is in El Dorado. El Dorado is a small town, so I’m tempted to say that that’s all that’s there, but that does it an injustice. Adding insult to injury, if the local folks here tend to say “Silicone Valley”, people from out of the area have a tendency to get completely confused about the difference between El Dorado and El Dorado Hills. So here’s a brief primer.

El Dorado Hills has the Serrano Country Club and subdivision, and is just west of Cameron Park and East of Folsom. Those who love it call it an “exquisite upscale community” or the like. Those who hate it are prone to characterize it as a “fashionable McMansion development.” I should say in defense against those who hate it that there are a lot of other really neat subdivisions out there with more unique custom homes, like Waterford. I love Waterford.

El Dorado has Poor Red’s, a couple of high schools, a gun shop, a smackerel of small town charm, good prices, and is just a bit west / south of Placerville.

Now, for an advanced lesson: Both El Dorado Hills and El Dorado are in El Dorado County.

Placerville is also in El Dorado County, not Placer County.

Everyone feeling OK at this point? Good.