I agree with you that many of the Bay Area buyers whose speculation fueled the 2005 bubble have left the market. What’s fueling the resurgence in demand in Sacramento County seems to me to be many first time buyers looking to take advantage of the 30+% year on year price drops over the last year.

Yes, it would be irresponsible to suggest that sellers would see 2005-2006 prices by an exercise of patience, but no one in fact suggested it except you. I was arguing above that prices might “start to improve” in Sacramento County next year, but when you look at El Dorado County, “the story is a different one in several respects”. I enjoy a straw man as much as the next guy, but they do tend to catch fire when one applies the torch of what someone actually said.

A large portion of the Gold Country MLS is filled with sellers still hoping to catch a deep-pocketed retiree from the Bay Area — but such babes-in-the-woods are proving harder and harder to ensnare! No, until the listings are cleared of these last dreamers, we will not have seen the end of the price reductions.

A return of positive appreciation? When it returns - and that is still a distant prospect — it be at a slow rate, not a new “bubble.” It is irresponsible to suggest to sellers (or buyers) that they will see 2005-2006 prices simply by an exercise of patience. The market will “improve,” but we will not see another speculative RE bubble like this again in our lifetimes.

I have a number of neighbors who are want to sell but are waiting “for the market to improve.” This is foolishness. Today’s market price, however disappointing for the starry-eyed seller, will seem extravagant by Spring of 2009.

Thanks for the kind words. Meaning no disrespect if you have a standalone blog there in Amador County. Obviously for awhile we were both hosting one on ActiveRain.

Folks, Michael runs another excellent blog for Amador County, on ActiveRain.

Thanks again for the kind words. Hope all is well.

Michael I. Pulskamp
Mainstreet Brokers

Sorry. Beer with me.

Thank you for your considered response. I accept your points.

Still, I wonder why local realtors continue to accept listings with prices that are demonstrably at 2005-2006 levels (or higher), building inventory and perhaps creating the impression among sellers that these asking prices are credible.

I understand that your influence has limits, but having been a seller a year ago, I know that I hear a difference between “well, let’s try that price, buyers will tell us what they think by their actions” and “I must tell you, prices are falling and WILL NOT be bouncing back for the foreseeable future- you will be lucky to find a buyer at a 2003 (or insert your best guess) price.”

Mr. Lockwood, if I could speak to sellers directly, I would; but that is not the reality. We buyers must depend to you and your peers to educate sellers to the new reality- “tough love” if you will. I believe that the bulk of this correction could happen relatively quickly, in months rather than years, and we could clear this log-jam and get on with our lives. It’s in both our interests. For the folks that are going to suffer financially, the only choices are bad now or worse later.