As we’ve seen over the last several months, El Dorado County’s real estate market continued to put in a strong showing, with only very small declines in price and slight changes in other market areas compared to Sacramento County to the west, Placer County to the North, or Amador County to the South.

The median price for all residential property sold through the local MLS (Metrolist), is an excellent indicator of this resilience, declining a mere eight tenths of one per cent from May of 2006 to May 2007, from $499,000 last year to $495,000.  The average sold price in May was $543,534, down only 1.2% from last year.  Even adjusted for square footage, the decline was only a moderate 4.4% from May to May.

In terms of average days on market for sold homes, this year actually fared better than last, at 67 days compared to last year’s 68 days.  Similarly the expired listing to sold listing ratio, which shows us how many sellers are having trouble getting a buyer for their homes, is relatively uncharged  as well, from 48.7% last year to 50.3% this year.

The only two indicators that do show significant signs of stress are inventory numbers.  El Dorado County has just over eleven months of unsold inventory.  Also, unlike other indicators, units sold have changed significantly.  197 units sold last May versus 147 this year, a drop in unit volume of 25.4%.

El Dorado’s residential real estate market in March of 2007 showed a very slight drop from the same time a year ago for most indicators.  To be sure, the median price was off by 10.3%, from $515,000 in March of 2006 to $462,000 for March of 2007.  However, the average sale price decreased only 2.6% (from $541,910 to $527,944), and the average sold price per square foot declined only 3.2%.

Other indicators changed only slightly as well, with days on market increasing from an average of 69 days to 73 days.  The expired to sold ratio rose from 42.2% to 54.7% during this period.  Inventory, however, is fairly heavy at 9.3 months.

It’s generally accepted that the impact — perhaps even the intent — of El Dorado County’s Traffic Impact Mitigation Fees was to dramatically slow the development of undeveloped land. I’ve done some research recently that sheds some light onto how much of an impact these fees have had. Based on this research, we will see that the traffic impact fees have had an effect on the slowdown in sales of land that has been every bit as detrimental as the change in the general economy.

Since 2005, real estate sales have slowed in many areas of the country, including El Dorado County and Sacramento County. Unit volume and prices are down, and inventory is up. In the case of undeveloped land in El Dorado County, we currently have 727 units for sale listed in the MLS. Given that over the last year our average unit sales volume has been 23.2%, this works out to a figure of 31.4 months of inventory.  The most common type of bare land available now is the two to five acre parcel (144 units), with parcels between one-half and one acre coming in second (124 units).  The remainder of the 727 units are divided among the other categories, with the fewest in the 20 acre plus category (73 units).

In contrast to the 31.4 acres of land inventory we have in the county, our inventory of homes appears relatively meager at 9.3 months.  However, current inventory is not the only indication we have that land sales have been dramatically slowed through the impact of the traffic mitigation fees.  The changes in unit volume from year to year also give us an indication.  For developed parcels (residential homes of one type or another), 1976 units were sold in the last year, down 23.7% from the year before (2005-2006).  The volume in 2005-2006, in turn, was down 19.0% from the previous year.

We can consider these reductions as a sort of “baseline” for the decrease in volume we’d expect as the general real estate market cooled in the last few years.  In the case of land, however, we can also see how the Traffic Impact Mitigation (TIM) fees factor in.  This year’s unit volume of land sold in El Dorado County, 278 units, was a decrease of 55.7% from the 2005-2006 period (as compared to the 23.7% figure we quoted above for homes).  The year before, 2005-2006, El Dorado County land sales were off by 43.1% from the prior year (2004-2005), as compared to a 19% drop in unit volume for homes during the same period.

As we can see, the slow down in land sales has taken place at roughly double the pace of the slowdown in the sale of homes.  Perhaps in a later article I will take a look at how prices have changed in each category over the period.  I predict that in addition to the TIM fees, there’s a different psychology that’s often at work in the sale of a home versus land, as a result of which we’ll find that the prices of land have tended to retreat more slowly.  But we’ll leave most of that discussion for a future article.

My understanding is that Bridget is holding her beautiful Boondock Trail Listing open this weekend, from 12PM - 4PM Saturday and Sunday, March 31st and April 1st.

You should probably double check that to make sure there are no last minute changes by calling Bridget at (530) 306-9111.

You might want to bring a picnic lunch, because it promises to be a beautiful day in a lovely part of the county.

To see more of this lovely listing, check out the slide show.

El Dorado County’s real estate market in February shows just how resilient and unusual El Dorado County is compared to whatever else you might want to compare it to.

My favorite barometer, sold price per square foot, is down slightly (2.9%), but given that this year’s crop of homes is 14.8% bigger (2349 square feet versus last year’s 2046 square feet), I’m not so sure this drop is significant. Larger homes in general sell at a lower price per square foot as a rule, as one would expect with land being the fixed cost that needs to be “amortized” over the size.

However, the more I wrestle with El Dorado County’s numbers, the more I get a sense that it’s quite possible we’ve turned a corner. This February’s average sold price of $557,749 bested last year’s average price of $500,207 by 11.5%. Over the same February 2006 to February 2007, the median price rose by 14.3%.

Unit volume is down slightly (9.4%) from 127 sold units in February of 2006 to 115 units sold in February 2007.  Expireds are practically the same (96 last year, 97 this year, a 1% increase).  The expired to sold ratio is up (75.6% last year versus 86.3% this year). Inventory is moderately into the buyers’ market side of the ledger at seven months.

But what about Land?

You had to ask.  Vacant land in El Dorado County are moving less well than homes are, with 27.4 months of inventory currently available.  We talked about traffic impact fees in an earlier post.  These fees haven’t gone away, and as one of my colleagues pointed out the other day, having homes at $500,000 and land at $350,000 doesn’t help.

Incidentally, if you’re curious about exactly how much those El Dorado Traffic Impact Mitigation (”TIM”) Fees are running, here it is from the horse’s mouth.

On the positive side, inventory does seem to be down from the last time I looked at it, even though the raw number’s still pretty alarming.  We’ll keep an eye on it.

We’ve put together a slide show that highlights the beauty of Bridget’s gorgeous listing on Boondock Trail. Bridget tells me that to really appreciate it, however, you should probably get out there and take a look for yourself.

In fact, we’re all so proud of this one that I was all set to make checking out this listing the featured stop on my second Amador County adventure. Then I realized that Fairplay was in El Dorado County, and I’m already living an El Dorado County Adventure each and every day.

To check out the slide show, click the picture!

And yes, you do get a copy of the slideshow burned onto a nice CD as one of our closing gifts when you move into the home…

HOPE Flyer    Are you looking to buy a home in Amador or El Dorado counties? We are holding a workshop to help you prepare yourself for the home buying process,  on Saturday March 10th from 9am-1pm at Placer Title in Jackson, you will have the opportunity to talk with lenders, Amador County Realtors, Title & Escrow officers, and receive assistance in understanding your credit.  Please call or e-mail Bridget at Bridget@BridgetSells.com  (530) 306-9111 reservations or required. We will have a list of homes in various price ranges in areas such as: Plymouth, Ione, Sutter Creek, Jackson, Pine Grove, Mt Aukum, Fairplay, and River Pines.

I have had the honor of listing one of the most exquisite homes and settings I have ever seen. From the creek, pond, and lake to the detailed rock & brick work to the conveniences of dual heating & air. This paradise has it all. Situated in the “Heart” of Fairplay Viticulture, located in El Dorado County, this homes rests on over 6 usable acres with deeded access to a private lake located just a short walk across the road. There is plenty of room for a couple acres of vines, horses, alpacas, or whatever you have in mind. You can view more of this home at www.BridgetSells.com. Some of the possibilities might be a Bed and Breakfast, vacation retreat, or just an amazing place for your family to call home. 4 bedrooms 2 baths family/dining combo room, living room, and updated bathrooms. Rock fireplace and a beautiful propane stove. If you would like more information or to schedule your own private tour please call Bridget at 530-306-9111 or e-mail me at Bridget@BridgetSells.com.

Vicki Agregado just listed this beautiful three bedroom two bath home at 3253 Sandhurst Court, Cameron Park — if you follow that link you’ll see that if you lived in this well maintained home you’d be within an easy walking distance to Cameron Park Lake. (The lake itself has a really neat walking / running trail going around it). Also, you get the benefit of our small town feel and fantastic Cameron Park schools. Small town — what am I saying? — make that our small unincorporated area feel.
This three bedroom, two bath home is listed at $429,000. This listing has just been entered this morning so I can’t yet link to the listing, but it’s in the computer as MLS # 70017160, and here are some pictures for you.

It’s been a few days since I published the Sacramento County Year In Review on my Sacramento site, so I thought I’d follow that up with a brief Year in Review for El Dorado County Real Estate.

El Dorado County followed a much different pattern from what we saw in Sacramento. The raw data is below so you can make up your own mind, but let me try to summarize it. I would say that El Dorado’s prices continued to rise, and at a faster rate, throughout 2005, and fell in 2006 at a slower rate, than Sacramento County. Also, the shift in the market from increasing prices to decreasing happened later in the year.

As a result of these differences, the year on year appreciation numbers are positive for most quarters of 2006, and positive overall. It’s only in the third quarter that we start to see the numbers go down, as shown below. I expect we’ll continue to see declines in 2007, though whether those declines will turn out to be “hard” or “soft” I leave to the good pundits at Sacramento Landing (presumably, since we don’t have an El Dorado Landing).

Meanwhile, if you want to see the world through rose colored glasses, tell your friends that the average sale price for home in El Dorado County appreciated 4.2% in 2006, while the median sale price appreciated 5.3%. (Just don’t tell them that unit volume is off 30.6% — that’ll ruin it!)

Here are the numbers. As always, information is based on MLS data and is believed accurate but has not been verified.

For average prices:

For median prices: