The numbers for residential sales in Pollock Pines from November, 2005 to November, 2006 are a kind of mixed jumble that makes them difficult to characterize.

On the one hand, sales are up 50%, from twelve units sold last November to eighteen sold this November.  So looking just at November, that’s great news.  Of course, if you take the year as a whole (December to November for 2005 versus 2006), a different picture emerges, with 261 units sold in 2005 versus 156 in 2006, a forty per cent drop.  Perhaps it’s safe to say just what we noticed recently in our other writings, that buyers, lured both by bargains offered with prices falling and the recent drops in interest rates, have been coming out in droves these last couple of months.

This year’s median sale price was up 15.6% in Pollock Pines, from $360,617 last November to $416,737 this November.  Also, the average sale price was up 11.6%, from $355,792 last November to $397,217 this November.   Don’t get too excited yet, however — it turns out that a little more money bought a lot more house, with the average size of sold units growning a big 45.7%, from 1355 square feet last November to 1974 square feet this November.

As a result, when we look at average square footage, we no longer find appreciation.  Instead, we find a significant drop — of 23.4%, from November to November.

It’s hard to find much to fault with Pollock Pines’ November performance overall, however.  Given the good divisor of eighteen units sold, inventory is a modest 6.6 months.  I’m sure sellers are hoping that December and January will bring them more of the same, but we’ll have to wait and see on that one.

Well, what sort of tourist would I be if I didn’t take pictures?

(The kind who blogged video? Hey, be gentle with me, I live in El Dorado County. What do you think this is, “Silicone Valley”? Yes, people around here really do call it “Silicone Valley” half the time. I think they’re confusing it with Hollywood, but that’s a whole different post).

So anyway, during yesterday’s big Amador County Adventure, naturally I took some pictures, as proof that I’m not some guy just hanging around my comfortable den in Cameron Park, but nay, indeed, really did make it as far as the Mel’s in Jackson.

Here’s proof that at one point I was preparing to leave the safe known known (thanks, Donald Rumsfeld) of El Dorado County, in the form of my not-too-fuzzy picture of Poor Red’s:

For those of you who don’t think “Poor Red’s” is a local landmark, I once had a “floor call” from my web site in which I was asked how far a given house was to Poor Red’s. As it turns out, Poor Red’s is pretty close to where my daughter goes to High School, but it’s even closer to the turn off from Pleasant Valley Road onto route 49, which is El Dorado County’s preferred method for getting out to Amador if that’s the kind of big adventure you’re having.

So Many El Dorados, So Little Time

Poor Red’s is in El Dorado. El Dorado is a small town, so I’m tempted to say that that’s all that’s there, but that does it an injustice. Adding insult to injury, if the local folks here tend to say “Silicone Valley”, people from out of the area have a tendency to get completely confused about the difference between El Dorado and El Dorado Hills. So here’s a brief primer.

El Dorado Hills has the Serrano Country Club and subdivision, and is just west of Cameron Park and East of Folsom. Those who love it call it an “exquisite upscale community” or the like. Those who hate it are prone to characterize it as a “fashionable McMansion development.” I should say in defense against those who hate it that there are a lot of other really neat subdivisions out there with more unique custom homes, like Waterford. I love Waterford.

El Dorado has Poor Red’s, a couple of high schools, a gun shop, a smackerel of small town charm, good prices, and is just a bit west / south of Placerville.

Now, for an advanced lesson: Both El Dorado Hills and El Dorado are in El Dorado County.

Placerville is also in El Dorado County, not Placer County.

Everyone feeling OK at this point? Good.

Kathy here, posting my first blog of the blogathon. Helen is with me, observing. She’s already learned how to do the market research. Now she’s learning how to post her results in a blog. I did a little research on our glamorous neighbor to the west, El Dorado Hills.

So here is what we’ve learned about El Dorado Hills. The average list price for November 2005 was $704,820. This year the number has gone up 4%, making the Average list price for November 2006 $733,128. That was a surprise to us since we thought that the market was going down. But that was only the list price. Sellers, of course do not want the market to go down. The average Selling price stayed pretty close to the same as last year for the same time period. The selling price for November 2005 was $694,661. This year the number is up 1.5%, making the Average selling price for November 2006 $705,164. Interestingly enough the average list price last November is virtually the same as the average selling price this November. And the average number of days on market has risen 21.6% But the most significant figure we saw was the drop in unit sales. For November 2005 the number of houses sold was 53. This November there were only 27 sold, making a drop of 49.1%. So by raising the list price while there are fewer buyers, sellers are getting the result you would expect — fewer sales.
So there you have it folks. And tomorrow, Helen will tell you about what’s happening in Folsom

Placerville’s residential sales in November were very sluggish compared to the same time last year, and with interest rates quite low and inventory high, bargain hunters may find this is a good time to get out there and get searching. As we’ll see, however, at least part of this conclusion comes from the limits of the sample, so hang in there for a minute as we go into the details.

Sellers who were successful in getting a buyer dropped their price an average of 12.4% from last year, with the average list price falling from $521,496 to $457,070. The average sale price dropped slightly more — 13.9% — from $514,257 last year to $442,790 this year. That means that on average, last November’s buyer purchased a home at 99% of list price, while this year’s buyer negotiated a somewhat better discount, paying 97% of list (i.e., three percent less than list). The year to year median price dropped most dramatically, 16.2%.

So far so bad, and it gets worse before it gets better. So let’s have a good clean cry now and then cheer up at the end of the article. Unit volume was down 63% from November to November, with twenty-seven units selling last year and ten selling this year. With expireds rising at the same time from twelve to seventeen, the expired to sold ratio now stands at 170%. Another way to put that is that if you had your home on the market in November, the odds against it selling were something like 1.7 to 1.0 (not counting those homes that may have been voluntarily withdrawn).

Because of the oversupply, residential inventory in Placerville is now at 13.4 months, if November’s slow performance is taken as representative (which probably errs on the side of caution and bubble-o-mania). If instead we take the average sales per month over the last year, the inventory numbers look a little less grim, at 7.8 months.

In fact, the inventory numbers shows us one case of how cautious we need to be with the statistical data. Now I admit, most of what we see in Placerville for November is a bubbler’s delight, but also afoot are some other statistical oddities. First, in November we got down to ten units per month selling, meaning our sample is getting small enough to show that same high margin of error that we’ve reported for Amador County. Secondly, there’s some evidence that when adjusted for what the sample really is, the decline in price is not representative of the end of the world. To be sure, the average sale price dropped 13.9% from November to November, but this November’s homes also averaged 11.6% smaller (1943 square feet last year as opposed to 1717 square feet this year). The result is that price per square foot during the same period also dropped, but far less dramatically (2.6%) than average the drop in average price.

So, as the saying goes, “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Or if I may try my hand at coining my own phrase: the number you get is the number you want. I’d be inclined to call Placerville in November for the bubblers. But I also feel a certain responsibility to report those areas where the entireity of the numbers tell a different story.

Hi, it’s John and Kathy.  Kathy’s learning the family business of real estate market updates, and so we’re starting with our own lovely home town of Cameron Park.

Cameron Park’s market slowed substantially from last year, with falling prices.  From November to November, the average sale price dropped 10.3%, from $524,663 to $470,800.  The median sale price dropped even more dramatically, down 12.1% from $475,000 to $417,500.  At the same time, the average sold price per square foot dropped 12.3%.  As we’ve seen in other markets, however, the ratio of list price to sold price has not changed much.  Last November homes that sold fetched 99% of their list price, whereas this year homes still brought 98% of list when they sold.  However, more than half the homes on the market in November expired.  With 16 units selling and 18 expiring, the expiired to sold ratio was 112.5% this year, compared to 65.2% last year.

So thanks, Kathy, for sitting through this MLS / Excel Extravaganza.  Once Kathy and Helen start blogging more, they may also be exploring some of the more non-technical aspects of the real estate around here.

Cheers!

Based on Dataquick data, The Mountain Democrat recently reported a 2.7% rise in median prices for El Dorado County in October compared to a year ago.  Painting a somewhat rosey picture, the article begins:

El Dorado County continues to defy the regional trend of declining home prices. In their October report, DataQuick Information Systems found year-over-year median price declines in existing single-family homes for Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba Counties. The drop in home values ranged from five percent in Sacramento to 11 percent in Placer County. El Dorado County, however, posted a slight 2.7 percent increase, finishing the month with a $445,000 median price, the second highest in the eight county region.

I myself have noted the same thing about El Dorado County in my own work.  Seemingly defying gravity, El Dorado County’s prices continue to post modest gains even as every other county in the area shows a loss.  I’ve been at something of a loss to explain this, especially in light of the huge losses in Placer County, a market that one might expect to perform somewhat similarly to El Dorado County.

As I read further in the article, one possible explanation came to mind, the dampening effect on the supply side that’s been created by El Dorado County’s traffic mitigation fees.  I have to wonder to what extent calling this slowdown in land sales “the desired effect” is meant to be tongue in cheek or how much it’s meant to be provocative:

The new Traffic Impact Mitigation Fees are having their desired effect. Vacant land sales have nearly stopped. With over 700 vacant land parcels listed for sale in the county, only 13 monthly sales were reported. It was the slowest month for land sales in recent history. Building and impact fees now easily total $80,000 for an average size house in some parts of the county, forcing many to look for lots and acreage elsewhere.

Well, I’m sure some of us already here who are thinking along solid Republican principles of “I got mine” may have desired that effect, but builders don’t, buyers don’t — certainly no one with land to sell thinks it’s a very good idea.  Thirteen monthly sales and 700 units in inventory works out to be some four and a half years of land inventory.  Ouch.

Welcome to our first market update article for El Dorado County.  We’ll start in on Amador County shortly as well, and get detailed articles on many specific areas as we go along.

El Dorado County’s prices in October 2006 have not lost much ground since 2005.  The average sale price even experienced a somewhat tantalizing gain of 6.3%, from an average last October of $506,093 to this October’s average of $538,019.  However, this year’s crop of houses being 6% bigger than last year (2158 square feet as opposed to 2036 square feet, on average), the real gain in the average price was a more modest .3%.  Meantime the median price dropped 3.0%, no doubt as many bargain hunters took advantage of homes in the lower end of the range.  The median for 2005 in El Dorado County was $469,000, while this year’s median was $455,000.

Unit volume is not off as heavily as it is in other areas, telling us that demand is still moderately strong.  This October 143 units sold, down 21.9% from last year’s number of 183.  What’s up dramatically however is the supply side.  We’re now at 11.2 months of inventory with 1599 unsold homes on the market in El Dorado County, and last year this oversupply was reflected in the expired to sold ratio numbers.  167 homes expired last month versus the 143 that sold, putting the ratio at 116.8%.  Last October the ratio, which was already starting to climb from it’s heyday, was up to 45.9%.

The average home that sold in El Dorado County took 79 days to sell, compared to an average of 51 days last year.

The sold price to list price ratio has changed as well over the period, but not as dramatically as many of our buyers expect.  As in other markets, homes priced well tend to sell fairly close to their list price.  In October, selling price was 97% of list compared to 98% last year.

One of the nicest people on the planet is selling this wonderful Beazer home in Cameron Park’s lovely Cameron Valley Estates subdivision (off of Meder Road). This 2001 three-bedroom home features an extra room that could serve as a fourth, and almost 1900 square feet of living space. Enjoy great Cameron Park schools and easy access to Highway 50.

Seller motivated. Call us at (530) 672-9160 for a showing or check all the details here, or take a look at additional photos (though to tell the truth, I don’t think the photos on this one really do it justice).