Placerville’s residential sales in November were very sluggish compared to the same time last year, and with interest rates quite low and inventory high, bargain hunters may find this is a good time to get out there and get searching. As we’ll see, however, at least part of this conclusion comes from the limits of the sample, so hang in there for a minute as we go into the details.
Sellers who were successful in getting a buyer dropped their price an average of 12.4% from last year, with the average list price falling from $521,496 to $457,070. The average sale price dropped slightly more — 13.9% — from $514,257 last year to $442,790 this year. That means that on average, last November’s buyer purchased a home at 99% of list price, while this year’s buyer negotiated a somewhat better discount, paying 97% of list (i.e., three percent less than list). The year to year median price dropped most dramatically, 16.2%.
So far so bad, and it gets worse before it gets better. So let’s have a good clean cry now and then cheer up at the end of the article. Unit volume was down 63% from November to November, with twenty-seven units selling last year and ten selling this year. With expireds rising at the same time from twelve to seventeen, the expired to sold ratio now stands at 170%. Another way to put that is that if you had your home on the market in November, the odds against it selling were something like 1.7 to 1.0 (not counting those homes that may have been voluntarily withdrawn).
Because of the oversupply, residential inventory in Placerville is now at 13.4 months, if November’s slow performance is taken as representative (which probably errs on the side of caution and bubble-o-mania). If instead we take the average sales per month over the last year, the inventory numbers look a little less grim, at 7.8 months.
In fact, the inventory numbers shows us one case of how cautious we need to be with the statistical data. Now I admit, most of what we see in Placerville for November is a bubbler’s delight, but also afoot are some other statistical oddities. First, in November we got down to ten units per month selling, meaning our sample is getting small enough to show that same high margin of error that we’ve reported for Amador County. Secondly, there’s some evidence that when adjusted for what the sample really is, the decline in price is not representative of the end of the world. To be sure, the average sale price dropped 13.9% from November to November, but this November’s homes also averaged 11.6% smaller (1943 square feet last year as opposed to 1717 square feet this year). The result is that price per square foot during the same period also dropped, but far less dramatically (2.6%) than average the drop in average price.
So, as the saying goes, “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Or if I may try my hand at coining my own phrase: the number you get is the number you want. I’d be inclined to call Placerville in November for the bubblers. But I also feel a certain responsibility to report those areas where the entireity of the numbers tell a different story.
